POLITICIANS AND NOT POLLSTERS HAVE A DIABOLICAL CONTROL OVER THE MINDS OF THE MASSES.

Poll opinions, especially in the form of pre-election polling are standard tools for the political class as well as numerous organizations and business firms concerned with mass public opinion. This is how we ought to understand them. Indeed, this is how poll opinions are understood the world over. But the same cannot be said of Kenya. Here, the public is continually inundated with harsh criticisms against pollsters. Politicians will almost always challenge the appropriateness as well as the validity of opinion polls, whenever such findings are not boding well with their political desires.

They would accuse professional pollsters of having a tendency of the casual mind which, stumbling upon a sample which supports or defines their (pollsters`) prejudices; they would not hesitate to make it a representative of a whole population. Some politicians have even opined that pollsters are used as agents for influencing people’s attitudes and behavior especially in political contests. In other words, they see poll opinions as effective political propaganda tools.

Yet if the same politicians were to be told that they were leading in the court of public opinion they would celebrate and hail it (poll) as a barometer of the prospective general election. At no time would they pour cold water on the poll nor would they declare it a straw poll.

In tenaciously clinging to the view that poll opinions exercise diabolical control over the voters` minds politicians will be exhuming the long discounted theoretical framework of uniform media effects. Consequently, to allege without any empirical evidence whatsoever that opinion polls can influence masses to favor a political faction that seems to be enjoying a notable popularity at the time is a little short of flaunting ones ignorance.

According to Paul Lazarsfeld, even though the mass media (of which poll opinions are part and parcel of) is very influential in awareness creation, it has very minimal effect on changing people’s attitudes and behavior. People vote based on ethnic considerations as well as socio-economic predispositions, hence media’s role is minimal and accounts for very little if any conversions.

In his research on persuasion, Carl Hovland further corroborated Lazarsfeld`s view when his research on persuasion brought to an end the era of the viability of the powerful media effects theory. Much effort was instead directed at finding the magic keys to persuasion. Today, many scholars in the communication field hold the view that politicians as opinion shapers hold these keys. This is because the word of mouth is more powerful than an opinion poll; hence a politician only needs to be eloquent enough to win over people and put them at his disposal. Politicians also mediate media messages, churn propaganda and counter arguments which serve to remove or dilute the partisan doubts and to refute the opposition’s arguments which the voter encounters in exposure to media. This creates security, stabilizes and solidifies voters’ intention, and translates into actual votes or desired actions. This is what happened before, during and after the 2007 Post Election Violence.

From the foregoing, it is incorrect for a section of the political class to opine that people are incited to violence or unwittingly change their attitudes and behavior in support of a faction that is enjoying a roller-coaster courtesy of the pollsters.

As for the appropriateness of the polls, it is incumbent upon the political class to understand that scientific polling is not a matter of lottery. Here, proper techniques are employed and the sample is representative hence the results obtained are close to the results one would get if the entire population was to be surveyed. This means that if 46 percent of the sample surveyed thinks that a certain politician is the likely candidate to win the presidency, statistical theory can corroborate that even if the whole population was to be surveyed, the probability is 95 percent that between 44 to 48 percent of the people would express the same approval as the sample.

Politicians must also be advised that pollsters only tell them which way the cat is jumping. It is upon politicians themselves to take care of the cat. Put in a different way, it is the work of politicians to sway public opinion in their own favor. They should therefore start by asking why polls seem unfavorable to them. This should then be followed by clear strategies that would see them try to sway voters in their favour. Unless, of course, they are not equal to the challenge, and they have therefore resigned to letting public-opinion poll be a substitute for thought.

In the event that politicians have qualms with the poll findings then the prudent thing for them to do is to engage other polling experts to carry out a similar exercise. It is doubtable whether gagging pollsters will in any way prolong the careers of politicians rather it will only portray them as people who do not espouse the fundamentals of scientific methodology which by and large, is anchored in logical reasoning and empirical objectivity. Furthermore, such a move is unconstitutional as it will only serve to roll back the democratic gains that this country has so far achieved.

WHERE IS KENYA`S COMMANDER IN CHIEF OF THE ARMED FORCES?

Had he been conscripted in the Whiteman’s Army, President Kibaki could perhaps be in the top echelons of our armed forces today. He was a passionate proponent of Kenya`s sovereignty. He wanted to defend his country from any form of external aggression. However, the Colonial Government shattered his boyhood dreams. It could not trust a native of central province in the army. Undeterred, he consumed the Whiteman`s books with an unparalleled appetite. He wanted to become a Professor of economics. His academic conquests awed many even though he did not go beyond a master`s degree. As fate would have it, his entry into the thick of politics saw him become Kenya`s Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. His boyhood dream was thus fulfilled.

But the Kibaki who last week graced the swearing in ceremony of President Museveni was a stark difference from the younger Kibaki. He quietly smiled as his host ranted about the principles of mutual respect for territorial integrity, nonaggression, noninterference, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful co-existence with neighbors. As these words majestically rolled off his tongue his belligerent army was busy displaying the grandeur of its power through terrorizing Kenyan citizens on Migingo and Ugingo. I wondered whether President Kibaki missed the fact that Museveni`s speech was underlain by a sharp contrary meaning.

The preceding week had seen some of Kenya’s political elites visit Todonyang. They were shocked at the massacre visited upon the Kenyans as well as the extent of annexation of Kenya`s territory. Upon their return to Nairobi they were patriotic enough to move a motion on the floor of the House urging the Kenyan Government to safeguard our territorial integrity, sovereignty and security. In short they were telling President Kibaki to smell the coffee. After all he is the Commander in Chief of Kenya`s Armed Forces, hence the onus for safeguarding Kenya`s sovereignty is on him. Like these legislators, I cannot figure out why President Kibaki watches in grotesque silence as those with gargantuan expansionist appetite grab hold of our sovereignty and nail it on the altar of illiberalism. Are we living on borrowed sovereignty?

Buoyed by President Kibaki`s silence Kenya`s coalition government has increasingly spoken at cross-purposes on an issue as sacrosanct as our sovereignty. For instance, two years ago the government spokesperson (whose views are largely reflective of PNU`s body politic) was of the view that Migingo Island was too small an Island to put strain on bilateral relations between Kenya and Uganda. He seemed to be saying that we could trade off this ‘insignificant” island with bilateral relations! I bet he is still flaunting Kenya`s sovereignty even as its territory is annexed by the day. I implore him that for once he should withdraw into the citadel of reason and debouch with the cannon of truth.

Besides the political class, Kenya`s army is another terrible eyesore. It is the only army on the face of the earth that is populated with sons and daughters of the rich. In the street parlance they are called cerelac babies. A couple of months ago I heard a story of how so many of the army cadets fainted in droves during a week`s expedition on Mount Kenya. They could not just pass the fitness test. This is in sharp contrast with the administration police who on being subjected to the same test, passed with flying colours.

Apart from the soldiers` fitness is also the question of the runaway corruption in the army that has largely been responsible for the procurement of dilapidated equipment. The disadvantage in equipment as well as in training makes our army a less formidable force perhaps in the whole of Africa.

It therefore follows that unless and until we address these inadequacies, we may as well be contended with the fact that our army will continue to earn huge perks as well as promotions up the ranks through demonstration of their valiance in combats that only succeed in killing innocent Kenyan babies as happened recently at Maroroi in Ngong.

Just in case President Kibaki is unaware, let him know that the public is annoyed. They want him to be the commander that he so earnestly wished to be. They want him to replace this effete army with strong, valorous and patriotic Kenyans so that they can shatter those who wish to turn our liberty into a grave yard.

I presume that President Kibaki would heed the people`s call. I presume that he does not wish to be remembered as a Commander in Chief “who appeared dissipated, increasingly fatalistic and totally indifferent to the danger that the country was in; a Commander in Chief who never said a foolish thing, but one who never did a wise thing either, a Commander in Chief who at the sight of the people`s suffering donned blinders. The Gikuyu of Kenya have a name for this type of a Commander- “Kiguoya.”

INFLATION: GOVERNMENT BITING THE VERY HAND THAT FEEDS IT.

In the early hours of this week`s Tuesday night, Nairobi city and its environs was engulfed in torrential rainfall. Drenched but resilient commuters trekked to their respective homes. Like them, I too was dog-tired of constant fare hikes occasioned by unethical practices such as fuel hoarding by cartels and the resultant exorbitant fuel prices. Along the way, we discussed about many issues if only to mollify the effect of the unrelenting rainfall.
I listened to the torrents of their afflictions. Looking into their pained faces it occurred to me that theirs was the anguish of the entire nation. It was the anguish occasioned by an unfeeling parliament. In fact one of them referred to it as “The Shrine of Pomposity.” Another one called it “A Hall of Pretentiousness.” I could not agree more with them. It occurred to me that ours is a country truly populated by an abundance of legislators but it is hampered by a dangerous dearth of leaders.

At hand is a direful situation that would drive nuts any responsible leader, but our legislators are more than usual calm. Frankly, they do not give a damn as the country`s economy totters on the brink of collapse courtesy of the “Leviathan Inflation.” What we have are legislators who will pretend to empathize rather than risk offending us by telling us to peacefully manage our own pangs of hunger.

Our legislators have succeeded in subjecting us to sustained and undisciplined extravaganza of incoherence as hyper-inflationary conditions breed normlessness. We are witnessing a generation of the business class that is busy manipulating prices to rake in huge profits in order to stay ahead of the current “inflation.” Our legislators have remained conspicuously silent when a coterie blames our country`s economic vicissitudes on turmoil in the global oil market when the truth is that it is the government`s incoherent policies in the energy sector, inability to address persistent drought conditions, political tensions and absence of sound fiscal policies that have largely seen our country`s economy nearly obliterated. It is this colossal inability to effectively and efficiently manage the country`s affairs that will tend to keep inflation present in the economy even when the original reasons for it occurring will long have gone.

Secondly, much as honorable Ephraim Maina may have very noble intentions in reintroducing the Price Control Bill I am afraid that it will suffer the same fate it suffered last year. Just last year, attempts at putting in place price regulation mechanisms for essential products sparked controversy with FKE stating that any curb of Kenya`s unrestrained free enterprise is anathema. Majority of the Legislators will most definitely give this revised bill a wide berth given that most of them are themselves merchants, consequently, a price stabilization mechanism will stand in the way of their in-built avarice.


Thirdly, legislators have maintained a studious silence even as the government proposes to increase taxation on salaried workers (the very hand that feeds it) as one of the many measures of bringing down inflation. It behooves the intelligence of the salaried workers that legislators and owners of capital, who already own most of the wealth, will almost be getting a free ride. The corporate chieftains and other shareholders will continue getting full benefit of any profit from the paper shuffling of their businesses, while anyone earning more than the median wage gets more and more of their income sequestered by the government.

They are dead silent because the bulk of their money is made up of their untaxed allowances. They live in a glass house and they cannot afford to throw stones. For the citizenry, this is a very serious and unfair discrimination. In fact, it is a recipe for the haves continuing to gain more, while the have-nots bear the brunt of leveraging the economy. Despite the public`s persistent demands that such allowances be taxed, the MPs have remained largely unmoved. We must reiterate for the umpteenth time that income is income and should consequently be taxed the same.

While these conceited and infantile exhibitionists do what they know best in their “Shrine of Pomposity,” almost every other day a new story of institutional and individual graft will be churned out to the trekking Kenyans rendering the likes of Triton and Goldenberg a mere child`s play. The trekking Kenyans are the chosen few on the face of the earth who can peacefully live and breed double fold amid a biting inflation, debilitating corruption and diseases.

I cannot agree more with French Canadian film director Denys Arcand when he opines that “as civilizations approach collapse, people become more concerned about their own gratification than about their social responsibilities.” Indeed, our legislators seem intent on proving this theory correct.